ARS vs BOU
Arsenal (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 68.1% fair 1.47
Draw 18.6% fair 5.39
BOU win 13.3% fair 7.50
Expected Goals
ARS
2.23
—
0.78
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 BOU | 12.3% | |
| ARS 1-0 BOU | 11.0% | |
| ARS 2-1 BOU | 9.6% | |
| ARS 3-0 BOU | 9.1% | |
| ARS 1-1 BOU | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).