EDGERATING
Methodology

ARS vs BOU

Arsenal (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 81%

Match Outcome

ARS win 71.8% fair 1.39
Draw 16.3% fair 6.12
BOU win 11.9% fair 8.43

Expected Goals

ARS 2.52 0.79 BOU
Over 2.5 goals64.3%fair 1.56
Under 2.5 goals35.7%fair 2.80
Both teams to score50.1%fair 2.00

Most Likely Scores

ARS 2-0 BOU11.6%
ARS 3-0 BOU9.8%
ARS 1-0 BOU9.2%
ARS 2-1 BOU9.1%
ARS 3-1 BOU7.7%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
1 9.2 7.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
2 11.6 9.1 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
3 9.8 7.7 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
4 6.2 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
5+ 5.1 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0

Rows: ARS goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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