SUN vs NFO
Sunderland (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 35.7% fair 2.80
Draw 27.2% fair 3.67
NFO win 37.1% fair 2.70
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.3% / 27.7% / 38.0%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.16
—
1.23
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | fair 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 NFO | 13.1% | |
| SUN 0-1 NFO | 11.3% | |
| SUN 1-0 NFO | 10.6% | |
| SUN 0-0 NFO | 9.2% | |
| SUN 1-2 NFO | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).