SUN vs NFO
Sunderland (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 73%
Match Outcome
SUN win 36.6% fair 2.73
Draw 25.9% fair 3.87
NFO win 37.5% fair 2.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.0% / 26.2% / 38.8%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.27
—
1.35
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 NFO | 12.5% | |
| SUN 0-1 NFO | 9.8% | |
| SUN 1-0 NFO | 9.2% | |
| SUN 1-2 NFO | 8.4% | |
| SUN 2-1 NFO | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).