CRY vs MUN
Crystal Palace (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
CRY win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
MUN win 31.6% fair 3.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.5% / 24.8% / 31.7%.
Expected Goals
CRY
1.55
—
1.29
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 MUN | 11.7% | |
| CRY 2-1 MUN | 9.1% | |
| CRY 1-0 MUN | 9.0% | |
| CRY 1-2 MUN | 7.5% | |
| CRY 0-1 MUN | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).