CRY vs MUN
Crystal Palace (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
MUN win 34.8% fair 2.88
Expected Goals
CRY
1.54
—
1.42
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 MUN | 11.3% | |
| CRY 2-1 MUN | 8.7% | |
| CRY 1-2 MUN | 8.1% | |
| CRY 1-0 MUN | 8.0% | |
| CRY 0-1 MUN | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).