Gameweek 16
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-19 12:30 | BRE vs NEW | 40.6% | 23.9% | 35.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 15:00 | BOU vs COV | 61.0% | 20.3% | 18.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 15:00 | LEE vs FUL | 43.0% | 26.3% | 30.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 15:00 | MCI vs HUL | 74.6% | 14.7% | 10.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 15:00 | NFO vs EVE | 41.4% | 28.4% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 17:30 | LIV vs TOT | 58.9% | 21.1% | 20.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 14:00 | BHA vs IPS | 68.4% | 16.8% | 14.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 14:00 | SUN vs CRY | 36.3% | 25.3% | 38.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-20 16:30 | ARS vs MUN | 67.7% | 19.0% | 13.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-21 20:00 | CHE vs AVL | 49.0% | 22.5% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.