LEE vs FUL
Leeds United (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 43.0% fair 2.32
Draw 26.3% fair 3.81
FUL win 30.7% fair 3.26
Expected Goals
LEE
1.39
—
1.14
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 FUL | 12.6% | |
| LEE 1-0 FUL | 11.1% | |
| LEE 0-1 FUL | 9.1% | |
| LEE 2-1 FUL | 8.8% | |
| LEE 0-0 FUL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).