BHA vs IPS
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 68.4% fair 1.46
Draw 16.8% fair 5.96
IPS win 14.8% fair 6.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.5% / 15.5% / 12.0%.
Expected Goals
BHA
2.68
—
1.02
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.5% | fair 3.51 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 IPS | 9.1% | |
| BHA 2-0 IPS | 8.9% | |
| BHA 3-1 IPS | 8.1% | |
| BHA 3-0 IPS | 7.9% | |
| BHA 1-1 IPS | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).