CHE vs AVL
Chelsea (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 49.0% fair 2.04
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
AVL win 28.5% fair 3.51
Expected Goals
CHE
1.90
—
1.39
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 AVL | 9.8% | |
| CHE 2-1 AVL | 9.3% | |
| CHE 1-0 AVL | 7.1% | |
| CHE 1-2 AVL | 6.8% | |
| CHE 2-0 AVL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).