Gameweek 17
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-26 12:30 | AVL vs LEE | 50.3% | 24.1% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-26 15:00 | EVE vs SUN | 48.4% | 25.9% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-26 15:00 | FUL vs BHA | 30.0% | 23.5% | 46.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-26 15:00 | IPS vs BRE | 31.6% | 23.4% | 45.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-26 15:00 | TOT vs BOU | 46.7% | 22.8% | 30.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-26 17:30 | HUL vs LIV | 19.6% | 21.7% | 58.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-26 20:00 | NEW vs MCI | 30.5% | 22.5% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-27 14:00 | COV vs CHE | 22.1% | 20.5% | 57.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-27 16:30 | MUN vs NFO | 45.7% | 25.7% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-27 19:00 | CRY vs ARS | 18.4% | 22.2% | 59.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.