TOT vs BOU
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 46.7% fair 2.14
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
BOU win 30.5% fair 3.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.0% / 22.6% / 30.4%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.84
—
1.45
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 BOU | 9.9% | |
| TOT 2-1 BOU | 9.2% | |
| TOT 1-2 BOU | 7.2% | |
| TOT 1-0 BOU | 6.9% | |
| TOT 2-2 BOU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).