EVE vs SUN
Everton (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 48.4% fair 2.07
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
SUN win 25.7% fair 3.89
Expected Goals
EVE
1.48
—
0.98
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-0 SUN | 12.6% | |
| EVE 1-1 SUN | 12.4% | |
| EVE 2-0 SUN | 9.4% | |
| EVE 2-1 SUN | 9.2% | |
| EVE 0-0 SUN | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).