IPS vs BRE
Ipswich Town (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 31.6% fair 3.16
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
BRE win 45.0% fair 2.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.3% / 23.3% / 47.4%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.34
—
1.76
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 BRE | 10.6% | |
| IPS 1-2 BRE | 9.4% | |
| IPS 0-1 BRE | 8.0% | |
| IPS 2-1 BRE | 7.1% | |
| IPS 0-2 BRE | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).