MUN vs NFO
Manchester United (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 45.7% fair 2.19
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
NFO win 28.6% fair 3.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.8% / 25.9% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.48
—
1.11
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 NFO | 12.3% | |
| MUN 1-0 NFO | 11.1% | |
| MUN 2-1 NFO | 9.1% | |
| MUN 0-1 NFO | 8.3% | |
| MUN 2-0 NFO | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).