AVL vs LEE
Aston Villa (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 50.3% fair 1.99
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
LEE win 25.6% fair 3.90
Expected Goals
AVL
1.69
—
1.11
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 LEE | 11.4% | |
| AVL 1-0 LEE | 10.3% | |
| AVL 2-1 LEE | 9.6% | |
| AVL 2-0 LEE | 8.7% | |
| AVL 0-1 LEE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).