FUL vs BHA
Fulham (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 30.0% fair 3.34
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
BHA win 46.5% fair 2.15
Expected Goals
FUL
1.28
—
1.75
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 BHA | 10.8% | |
| FUL 1-2 BHA | 9.5% | |
| FUL 0-1 BHA | 8.4% | |
| FUL 0-2 BHA | 7.4% | |
| FUL 2-1 BHA | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).