HUL vs LIV
Hull City (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 19.6% fair 5.11
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
LIV win 58.7% fair 1.70
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 15.6% / 21.4% / 63.0%.
Expected Goals
HUL
0.84
—
1.93
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 0-1 LIV | 12.2% | |
| HUL 0-2 LIV | 11.7% | |
| HUL 1-1 LIV | 10.2% | |
| HUL 1-2 LIV | 9.8% | |
| HUL 0-3 LIV | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).