Gameweek 18
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-29 19:30 | HUL vs LEE | 32.9% | 26.4% | 40.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-29 19:30 | TOT vs BHA | 35.1% | 22.6% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-29 20:15 | EVE vs MCI | 22.6% | 22.6% | 54.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-30 19:30 | COV vs BRE | 27.1% | 23.3% | 49.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-30 19:30 | CRY vs BOU | 40.4% | 23.9% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-30 19:30 | FUL vs ARS | 19.0% | 23.5% | 57.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-30 19:30 | MUN vs SUN | 54.0% | 22.9% | 23.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-30 19:30 | NEW vs NFO | 51.6% | 24.4% | 24.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-30 20:15 | AVL vs LIV | 32.2% | 24.7% | 43.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-30 20:15 | IPS vs CHE | 26.0% | 21.2% | 52.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.