CRY vs BOU
Crystal Palace (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
BOU win 35.6% fair 2.81
Expected Goals
CRY
1.58
—
1.50
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 BOU | 10.9% | |
| CRY 2-1 BOU | 8.6% | |
| CRY 1-2 BOU | 8.2% | |
| CRY 1-0 BOU | 7.3% | |
| CRY 0-1 BOU | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).