Gameweek 19
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-01 20:00 | LEE vs EVE | 43.3% | 27.1% | 29.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 12:30 | BHA vs MUN | 57.8% | 20.5% | 21.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 15:00 | ARS vs IPS | 75.8% | 14.6% | 9.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 15:00 | BRE vs CRY | 49.7% | 23.3% | 27.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 15:00 | LIV vs COV | 73.4% | 15.6% | 10.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 15:00 | NFO vs FUL | 41.1% | 27.4% | 31.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 15:00 | SUN vs HUL | 45.2% | 25.9% | 29.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 17:30 | BOU vs AVL | 39.7% | 23.8% | 36.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 14:00 | CHE vs NEW | 48.4% | 22.4% | 29.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 16:30 | MCI vs TOT | 64.1% | 18.4% | 17.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.