SUN vs HUL
Sunderland (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 25.9% fair 3.87
HUL win 29.0% fair 3.45
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.2% / 26.2% / 28.6%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.45
—
1.10
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 HUL | 12.5% | |
| SUN 1-0 HUL | 11.4% | |
| SUN 2-1 HUL | 9.0% | |
| SUN 0-1 HUL | 8.6% | |
| SUN 2-0 HUL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).