CHE vs NEW
Chelsea (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 48.4% fair 2.06
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
NEW win 29.2% fair 3.42
Expected Goals
CHE
1.91
—
1.44
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 NEW | 9.6% | |
| CHE 2-1 NEW | 9.2% | |
| CHE 1-2 NEW | 6.9% | |
| CHE 1-0 NEW | 6.7% | |
| CHE 2-2 NEW | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).