MCI vs TOT
Manchester City (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 64.1% fair 1.56
Draw 18.4% fair 5.43
TOT win 17.5% fair 5.70
Expected Goals
MCI
2.46
—
1.15
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 TOT | 9.4% | |
| MCI 2-0 TOT | 8.2% | |
| MCI 3-1 TOT | 7.7% | |
| MCI 1-1 TOT | 7.6% | |
| MCI 3-0 TOT | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).