ARS vs IPS
Arsenal (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 75.8% fair 1.32
Draw 14.6% fair 6.87
IPS win 9.6% fair 10.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 80.4% / 13.2% / 6.4%.
Expected Goals
ARS
2.65
—
0.62
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | fair 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 IPS | 13.4% | |
| ARS 3-0 IPS | 11.8% | |
| ARS 1-0 IPS | 10.1% | |
| ARS 2-1 IPS | 8.3% | |
| ARS 4-0 IPS | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).