NFO vs FUL
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 41.1% fair 2.43
Draw 27.4% fair 3.64
FUL win 31.5% fair 3.18
Expected Goals
NFO
1.27
—
1.08
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 FUL | 13.1% | |
| NFO 1-0 FUL | 12.1% | |
| NFO 0-1 FUL | 10.3% | |
| NFO 0-0 FUL | 9.6% | |
| NFO 2-1 FUL | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).