LEE vs EVE
Leeds United (home) vs Everton · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 27.1% fair 3.69
EVE win 29.6% fair 3.38
Expected Goals
LEE
1.33
—
1.04
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | fair 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 EVE | 12.9% | |
| LEE 1-0 EVE | 12.4% | |
| LEE 0-1 EVE | 9.8% | |
| LEE 0-0 EVE | 9.4% | |
| LEE 2-1 EVE | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).