BOU vs AVL
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 23.8% fair 4.21
AVL win 36.5% fair 2.74
Expected Goals
BOU
1.59
—
1.54
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 AVL | 10.7% | |
| BOU 2-1 AVL | 8.5% | |
| BOU 1-2 AVL | 8.3% | |
| BOU 1-0 AVL | 7.0% | |
| BOU 0-1 AVL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).