Gameweek 20
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-05 19:30 | ARS vs BRE | 66.0% | 19.8% | 14.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-05 19:30 | BHA vs BOU | 57.8% | 20.2% | 22.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-05 19:30 | EVE vs AVL | 34.4% | 26.2% | 39.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-05 19:30 | NFO vs HUL | 50.4% | 25.9% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-05 20:15 | SUN vs LIV | 20.4% | 22.0% | 57.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-06 19:30 | CRY vs CHE | 32.2% | 23.0% | 44.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-06 19:30 | FUL vs TOT | 38.9% | 24.8% | 36.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-06 19:30 | IPS vs COV | 48.9% | 23.8% | 27.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-06 20:15 | LEE vs MCI | 24.2% | 22.2% | 53.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-07 20:00 | MUN vs NEW | 38.3% | 24.0% | 37.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.