Gameweek 21
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-16 15:00 | BOU vs IPS | 56.7% | 21.0% | 22.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | AVL vs MUN | 49.5% | 23.2% | 27.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | BRE vs BHA | 34.8% | 23.0% | 42.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | CHE vs SUN | 64.4% | 18.9% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | COV vs EVE | 31.4% | 26.5% | 42.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | HUL vs ARS | 15.0% | 20.0% | 65.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | LIV vs CRY | 63.7% | 20.0% | 16.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | MCI vs NFO | 66.1% | 19.1% | 14.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | NEW vs FUL | 52.0% | 23.5% | 24.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 15:00 | TOT vs LEE | 47.9% | 24.1% | 28.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.