AVL vs MUN
Aston Villa (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 49.5% fair 2.02
Draw 23.2% fair 4.30
MUN win 27.3% fair 3.67
Expected Goals
AVL
1.79
—
1.26
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 MUN | 10.7% | |
| AVL 2-1 MUN | 9.6% | |
| AVL 1-0 MUN | 8.5% | |
| AVL 2-0 MUN | 7.6% | |
| AVL 1-2 MUN | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).