BRE vs BHA
Brentford (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 34.8% fair 2.88
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
BHA win 42.2% fair 2.37
Expected Goals
BRE
1.53
—
1.77
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 BHA | 10.0% | |
| BRE 1-2 BHA | 8.8% | |
| BRE 2-1 BHA | 7.7% | |
| BRE 2-2 BHA | 6.8% | |
| BRE 0-1 BHA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).