HUL vs ARS
Hull City (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 15.0% fair 6.65
Draw 20.0% fair 5.01
ARS win 65.0% fair 1.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 10.6% / 19.4% / 70.0%.
Expected Goals
HUL
0.63
—
2.02
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 0-2 ARS | 14.4% | |
| HUL 0-1 ARS | 14.2% | |
| HUL 0-3 ARS | 9.7% | |
| HUL 1-2 ARS | 9.1% | |
| HUL 1-1 ARS | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).