TOT vs LEE
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
LEE win 28.0% fair 3.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.4% / 24.1% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.68
—
1.21
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 LEE | 11.3% | |
| TOT 2-1 LEE | 9.5% | |
| TOT 1-0 LEE | 9.3% | |
| TOT 2-0 LEE | 7.8% | |
| TOT 1-2 LEE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).