NEW vs FUL
Newcastle United (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 52.0% fair 1.92
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
FUL win 24.5% fair 4.08
Expected Goals
NEW
1.77
—
1.11
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 FUL | 11.0% | |
| NEW 1-0 FUL | 10.0% | |
| NEW 2-1 FUL | 9.8% | |
| NEW 2-0 FUL | 8.8% | |
| NEW 0-1 FUL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).