BOU vs IPS
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 56.7% fair 1.76
Draw 21.0% fair 4.75
IPS win 22.2% fair 4.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.9% / 20.5% / 20.6%.
Expected Goals
BOU
2.13
—
1.19
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| BOU 1-1 IPS | 9.2% | |
| BOU 2-0 IPS | 8.2% | |
| BOU 1-0 IPS | 7.7% | |
| BOU 3-1 IPS | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).