COV vs EVE
Coventry City (home) vs Everton · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 31.4% fair 3.19
Draw 26.5% fair 3.78
EVE win 42.1% fair 2.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.0% / 26.9% / 44.1%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.07
—
1.38
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 EVE | 12.7% | |
| COV 0-1 EVE | 11.9% | |
| COV 1-0 EVE | 9.2% | |
| COV 1-2 EVE | 8.8% | |
| COV 0-0 EVE | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).