Gameweek 22
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-23 15:00 | ARS vs NEW | 62.9% | 21.0% | 16.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | BHA vs MCI | 36.9% | 22.4% | 40.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | CRY vs TOT | 38.7% | 24.0% | 37.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | EVE vs BRE | 37.1% | 26.2% | 36.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | FUL vs AVL | 35.8% | 25.4% | 38.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | IPS vs HUL | 45.3% | 24.9% | 29.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | LEE vs CHE | 33.4% | 24.1% | 42.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | MUN vs LIV | 27.9% | 23.8% | 48.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | NFO vs BOU | 39.3% | 25.8% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 15:00 | SUN vs COV | 48.8% | 24.7% | 26.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.