LEE vs CHE
Leeds United (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 33.4% fair 2.99
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
CHE win 42.5% fair 2.35
Expected Goals
LEE
1.36
—
1.64
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 CHE | 11.1% | |
| LEE 1-2 CHE | 9.1% | |
| LEE 0-1 CHE | 8.2% | |
| LEE 2-1 CHE | 7.6% | |
| LEE 1-0 CHE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).