BHA vs MCI
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 36.9% fair 2.71
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
MCI win 40.7% fair 2.46
Expected Goals
BHA
1.69
—
1.82
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.9% | fair 3.13 |
| Both teams to score | 68.3% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 MCI | 9.2% | |
| BHA 1-2 MCI | 8.4% | |
| BHA 2-1 MCI | 7.8% | |
| BHA 2-2 MCI | 7.1% | |
| BHA 0-1 MCI | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).