IPS vs HUL
Ipswich Town (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 67% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 45.3% fair 2.21
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
HUL win 29.8% fair 3.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.4% / 25.1% / 29.5%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.55
—
1.20
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 HUL | 11.9% | |
| IPS 1-0 HUL | 9.9% | |
| IPS 2-1 HUL | 9.2% | |
| IPS 2-0 HUL | 7.7% | |
| IPS 0-1 HUL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).