FUL vs AVL
Fulham (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 35.8% fair 2.79
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
AVL win 38.8% fair 2.58
Expected Goals
FUL
1.32
—
1.43
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 AVL | 12.1% | |
| FUL 0-1 AVL | 9.2% | |
| FUL 1-2 AVL | 8.6% | |
| FUL 1-0 AVL | 8.5% | |
| FUL 2-1 AVL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).