ARS vs NEW
Arsenal (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 62.9% fair 1.59
Draw 21.0% fair 4.76
NEW win 16.1% fair 6.21
Expected Goals
ARS
1.98
—
0.83
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-0 NEW | 11.9% | |
| ARS 2-0 NEW | 11.8% | |
| ARS 1-1 NEW | 9.9% | |
| ARS 2-1 NEW | 9.8% | |
| ARS 3-0 NEW | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).