MUN vs LIV
Manchester United (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 27.9% fair 3.58
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
LIV win 48.3% fair 2.07
Expected Goals
MUN
1.17
—
1.72
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 LIV | 11.2% | |
| MUN 1-2 LIV | 9.6% | |
| MUN 0-1 LIV | 9.5% | |
| MUN 0-2 LIV | 8.2% | |
| MUN 2-1 LIV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).