SUN vs COV
Sunderland (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
COV win 26.6% fair 3.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.5% / 24.8% / 25.7%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.61
—
1.09
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 COV | 11.8% | |
| SUN 1-0 COV | 10.8% | |
| SUN 2-1 COV | 9.5% | |
| SUN 2-0 COV | 8.7% | |
| SUN 0-1 COV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).