NFO vs BOU
Nottingham Forest (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 39.3% fair 2.54
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
BOU win 34.9% fair 2.86
Expected Goals
NFO
1.37
—
1.30
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 BOU | 12.3% | |
| NFO 1-0 BOU | 9.5% | |
| NFO 0-1 BOU | 9.0% | |
| NFO 2-1 BOU | 8.4% | |
| NFO 1-2 BOU | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).