Gameweek 23
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-30 15:00 | BOU vs FUL | 47.0% | 24.1% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | AVL vs IPS | 60.7% | 20.2% | 19.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | BRE vs MUN | 46.6% | 23.6% | 29.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | CHE vs NFO | 55.7% | 22.6% | 21.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | COV vs LEE | 30.5% | 25.4% | 44.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | HUL vs CRY | 33.9% | 25.6% | 40.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | LIV vs EVE | 61.6% | 21.9% | 16.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | MCI vs ARS | 36.4% | 25.6% | 38.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | NEW vs BHA | 38.4% | 23.1% | 38.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 15:00 | TOT vs SUN | 56.8% | 21.8% | 21.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.