CHE vs NFO
Chelsea (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 55.7% fair 1.80
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
NFO win 21.7% fair 4.61
Expected Goals
CHE
1.87
—
1.03
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 NFO | 10.6% | |
| CHE 1-0 NFO | 10.3% | |
| CHE 2-1 NFO | 9.9% | |
| CHE 2-0 NFO | 9.6% | |
| CHE 3-1 NFO | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).