BOU vs FUL
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
FUL win 28.9% fair 3.46
Expected Goals
BOU
1.66
—
1.25
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 FUL | 11.3% | |
| BOU 2-1 FUL | 9.4% | |
| BOU 1-0 FUL | 9.1% | |
| BOU 2-0 FUL | 7.5% | |
| BOU 1-2 FUL | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).