TOT vs SUN
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 56.8% fair 1.76
Draw 21.8% fair 4.60
SUN win 21.4% fair 4.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.6% / 21.4% / 19.9%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.99
—
1.07
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 SUN | 10.0% | |
| TOT 2-1 SUN | 9.9% | |
| TOT 1-0 SUN | 9.3% | |
| TOT 2-0 SUN | 9.2% | |
| TOT 3-1 SUN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).