COV vs LEE
Coventry City (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
LEE win 44.1% fair 2.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.7% / 25.6% / 46.7%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.10
—
1.51
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 LEE | 12.2% | |
| COV 0-1 LEE | 11.1% | |
| COV 1-2 LEE | 9.2% | |
| COV 0-2 LEE | 8.4% | |
| COV 1-0 LEE | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).