MCI vs ARS
Manchester City (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 88% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 36.4% fair 2.75
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
ARS win 38.0% fair 2.63
Expected Goals
MCI
1.33
—
1.39
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 1-1 ARS | 12.2% | |
| MCI 0-1 ARS | 9.2% | |
| MCI 1-0 ARS | 8.8% | |
| MCI 1-2 ARS | 8.5% | |
| MCI 2-1 ARS | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).