LIV vs EVE
Liverpool (home) vs Everton · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 61.6% fair 1.62
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
EVE win 16.5% fair 6.07
Expected Goals
LIV
1.88
—
0.79
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-0 EVE | 13.1% | |
| LIV 2-0 EVE | 12.3% | |
| LIV 1-1 EVE | 10.3% | |
| LIV 2-1 EVE | 9.7% | |
| LIV 3-0 EVE | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).